I’m about 1/3 through Razorfish’s Digital Outlook Report for 2009 and I’m finding it a fascinating read. It’s interesting to find out what some of the minds behind a global digital agency think. 2008 was a rocky year for everyone but 2009 is starting to shape up for some as it becomes a redefining year for how we run our business. As I spend the next few days reading the report, I hope to highlight other areas that I think are worth looking at.

Media Spend
Razorfish has defined these four areas as the spots that clients are spending their money. Search is up 5% from 2007 to 2008. More money is being spend in the entertainment vertical and a slight decline in the health category space. Portals and ad networks are doing ok, but really it’s search & verticals that are seeing the invest from their clients. This is taking into account that their clients are making these spends across 1,024 websites in 2008 compared to 1,138 in 2007. The number of websites are down but spend is up across the board in key areas. I believe this is a trend towards more clients wanting to have as much niche targeting as possible.

• Search (organic & paid): 37% of total spend
• Verticals: 35 of total spend
• Portals: 16% of total spend
• Ad Networks: 12% of total spend

Trends to Watch
Below are the trends that Razorfish thinks you should look out for. It’ll be fun to look back at the end of 2009 and see how this year has shaped up.

• Advertisers will turn to “measurability” and “differentiation” in the recession
• Search will now be immune to the impact of the economy
• Social Influence Marketing will go mainstream (see below for more)
• Online ad networks will contract; open ad exchanges will expand
• This year mobile will get smarter
• Research and measurement will enter the digital age
• Portable and beyond-the-browser opportunities will create new touchpoints for brands and content owners
• Going digital will help TV modernize

Social Influence Marketing (SIM)

• The way people are influencing each other online and across social platforms & brand websites
• Online influencing in small groups through peer pressure, reciprocity or flattery

Above is how Razorfish is looking at SIM and helping them get their clients on board. Some of the trends that Razorfish thinks will effect the social web and how we market are the following:

• Social Media usage will result in more influence
• The focus will shift to influencers
• Top-down branding will experience growing impotence
• Social advertising will grow up
• The portable social graph will fuel marketing innovation
• Not just friends, but friendsters, will start to matter
• Social influence research will become more important the social measurement
• Marketers will organize around social influence marketing
• The intranet will join the web
• Your CEO will join Facebook

Number 10 is a given if Facebook keeps on growing at the pace it does. With 150- 200+ million members and becoming the number one website in the US recently. It’s only a matter of time before Facebook takes over the world. It’ll be fun to watch as we start to enter Q3 of 2009. A lot of this is happening/about to happen across the web. Everyone is turning more and more to their friends for advice and companies are going to need to connect with these people.

Conclusion
Razorfish’s Digital Outlook Report is looking strong for 2009. I’m looking to write a bit about social objects, search, ad exchanges and a whole lot more as I dig deeper into this report. At 180 pages its no bed time reading.

Browse Timeline

• « Game Index two months later
• » Razorfish’s Digital Outlook Report 2009: Social Objects & the Connected Class

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